SBIB...

Bought into SBIB yesterday after it was looking good in the morning. A couple other stocks in my watchlist also looked good, but had gapped up and I am always concerned with stocks filling their gap, so I avoided them. Futures look weak this morning, so I'll see if this trade holds. I've had some misses and would like to see a winner to close out January... See my notes:
The nice benefit is the stop tight that is now 1% lower. Yesterday's price action suggested the stock is ready to pop.

Watch list for today: CGNX, HOTT, and BTH

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 01-30-2007...

Did not trade yesterday, although the WAG trade probably would be working well right now. No problem, there are always more stocks in later days to make up for lost opportunities. Speaking of that, my watch list for today: AVY, CBS, DRI, GPC, STI, PXR, SBIB, and PLCE.

I'll post any trades, as usual.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Another sell...

Two duds in a row. First it was SMSC and now TYC. Luckily, both stocks ticked higher going into my sell window and I was able to reduce my loss--it won't always be like this and I will get burned sooner than later, but that is the way it goes.

Sold 6.45169 shares of TYC @ $30.859. (Not the best fill in the world, but I'll take it) for a net of:

TYC: -$0.91 or -0.46%

I am planning on analyzing all my trades from 2006 to see if I can find any criteria that separate winners from losers. Two losses in a row is not a big deal, but I still would like to minimize them (of course).

Oh yes, I also sold BSG on weakness. On Thursday it printed a doji at the top of a 5 day rise and I knew it was over. Sure enough. Sold 8.11030 shares at $12.739 for a net of:

BSG: +$4.69 or +2.35%

Only a few stocks to watch on Monday: PETS and WAG. PETS burned me in my long term portfolio after it tanked 15% on earnings. I sold the position, but am more than happy to make some cash on it as a trade.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Switcharoo (Sell SMSC and Buy TYC)...

My title gives it away, today was a busy day. SMSC almost burned me bad. Yesterday at this time I was down over 1.5% but the stock came back just in time for me to sell. Pure luck. I almost changed my method and sold only half due to the apparent strength, but stuck to my method (and came out ahead in the end!). So, the trade details.
Sold 10.64210 shares at $28.035 for a net:

SMSC: -$1.65 or -0.55%

On the flipside, I took a position in TYC after it was holding $31 nicely and the chart looked more than acceptable. You can see my notes to see the trade. By the way, BSG is tracking higher day by day.

TYC:

For now,
Masterjaz out

SMSC trade and watch list...

Took a full position in SMSC yesterday. Not good by the end of the day and I will be selling it this morning as my stop loss has been hit. Hopefully the stock will recover a bit before then, but it is over. You can see my notes. I am a little surprised by the stock, but it is the way it goes. The 2pm tanking of the markets certainly did not help.

Notes:

My watch list for the 24th is: LFG, SUPX, FEIC, WDR, CMVT, GAS, PGL, QLGC, S, and TYC (lots of bullish engulfings yesterday--my favorite chart pattern!)

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 01-23-2007...

I have some capital ready to go, now let's see if the market and stock cooperate. I'll be watching: STSA, ORI, CTR, SMSC, and STA. Most, if not all, these are new names. Some charts are better than others, but they are the best of the 60 provided by my script. Not a surprising deficiency due to the sick markets today.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Sold AFG...

I am livid at FolioFN for their bullshit execution today. AFG reached my stop loss so I sold during their AM window. It took nearly 3 hours to transact the sell. They gave me the run around saying it is their method. Basically, I am a small player and I got screwed. I cannot wait to have enough capital to go to another broker so I do not suffer the huge slippage I get with them. Warning to all those who think they are the latest and greatest--slippage will occur and sometimes it sucks.

Sold 4.29493 shares @ $34.867 (I should have been filled at $34.95ish), but at least the position is closed. As I mentioned in my last post, the chart and price action looked sick, but I remained objective.

AFG: Net +$0.19 or +0.06% (it may be green, but it was a lot higher and I let it come back :( )

Luckily, the BSG trade is going well. Also, one of my long-term holdings tanked today on earnings and I reduced my position. I am beginning to think I want to be a full trader with this account rather than a trader/long-term investor. I have the long-term stuff secured in another retirement account and could use the alpha.

For now,
Masterjaz out

BSG (late as always)...

Last post I mentioned that BSG's chart looked beautiful and I was going to consider a partial position trade in it. And I did...You can see my notes below. I did break a couple rules in making this trade, but have some justification--namely, the price and chart of the stock rule above all else. The stock did not reach the -100 CCI level like I like. Also, both the sector and market were down when I entered the trade. So, while I did break some of my criteria for a trade, I adjusted my stops and targets tighter and went with it. So far so good.


I even took some profits today, Friday, as the stock was within a few pennies of my target and the overall market was looking sketchy. Also, being expirations, I figured 12.50 would be a magnet and the extra 5 cents was worth letting go, allowing for a less stressful weekend.

Sold 8.11030 shares @ $12.499.

I also am very worried about the AFG trade, the chart and price action is looking very sick. I was tempted to sell twice this morning, but decided to stay objective. Monday will be the litmus test of my current method. I think I need to find a better way to trail stops. 1% just does not work for all stocks, another value is needed (implied volatility, average true range, etc.). That is the way it goes, maybe I'll look for something over the weekend.

For now,
Masterjaz out

After the open 01-18-2007...

I have not been posting much as my one trade, AFG, is still in-play, but not moving a lot and I don't have too much available capital to place more trades. So, I've been going through the charts to practice finding candidates, but have not posted the tickers, just to save some time and energy.

Today I have two possible homerun candidates, so I will post them, look to trade and see what happens. Both BJS and BSG have wonderful charts and are used/abused stocks, especiall BJS. So, I'll post my notes if I make a trade, otherwise this blog will be quite boring until I sell AFG or get more funds deposited (next week hopefully, buying a house sure does cut off discretionary funds!).

For now,
Masterjaz out

AFG Partial Profits and Watch List...

Sold half the AFG position after it neared my first target. I was a little overcome with fear and took some profits a little early, but this market has me trigger happy. I am not going to let positions go against me right now. On top of that, the trade took forever to close and I ended up only making pennies on the transaction. Nonetheless, the remainder of the position is looking good.

Sold 4.29493 shares @ $35.027.

As always, I'll post the total trade data after I close the position.

Watch list for Tuesday: WM, PGR, HIG, TTI, and PYX

Currently I am not trading a lot for a variety of reasons. Mainly, I am in the process of buying a house and it is taking up much of my time. Also, my trading funds are dwindling as my long term portfolio is doing very well and I am adding funds to winning trades (a scaling stragegy). So, I may not trade these stocks, but I wanted to provide a watch list anyways.

Foreign markets are very, very healthy this morning (Monday) and I hope the enthusiasm carries over to the US markets tomorrow.

For now,
Masterjaz out

AFG and a watch list...

Took a trade in AFG this morning as it was setting up nicely. It dropped with the markets and I thought I would be recording a loss for my first 2007 trade, but it recovered nicely. I'm down a whopping 4 cents--ouch. Hopefully the afternoon pop will continue in the morning tomorrow.

My notes:

Watch list: UNFI, INT, and RTN (not much, but a couple of nice charts)

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 01-09-2007...

Did trade yesterday as I was trying to buy a house...just a little task to say the least. But things look good and I think I'll be able to trade on Tuesday if everything works out. I sure would like to get my first trade of 2007 on the books.

Here's my list: NPO, HAIN, AFG, FE, MHP, DW, NX, and CSC

For now,
Masterjaz out

First watch list of 2007 (I think)

Another year, same routing. tcl/tk script downloads charts, I look 'em over, and post the best.

Here they are: SM, COG, CHAP, MEE, SMRT, and KWK (mostly energy stocks as the recent decline in crude has destroyed them).

For now,
Masterjaz out

Year end 2006 Results

The task I like most about doing something new is reviewing my performance and trading is no exception. I compiled all my trades in a spreadsheet and found some interesting results. The take away message is my method in 2006 paid handsomely. I look forward to continuing in 2007. The only question is will it work as well!?!?!

The data:

Started trading = 4/6/2006
Current method = 5/23/2006

Charts Downloaded = 17,376
Candidate Charts = 735
% Chart Candidates = 4.23%

Total trades = 53
Winning trades = 30
Losing trades = 23
% Winning trades = 56.60%

Expectancy = 1.052

Avg winner % = 3.416%
Avg loser % = -2.031%

Avg winner $ = $7.55
Avg loser $ = -$4.51

Total $ = $122.80
Total % = 55.762%

Avg trade size = $215.14

Avg month $ = $13.64
Avg month % = 6.20%
Avg trades/month = 8.8
Most trades/month = 10 (October)
Least trades/month = 5 (Multiple months)

Best month = July (+$56.71, +21.59%)
Worst month = August (-$9.09, -4.51%)

Best trade $ = OMG, 11/29/2006, $30.82
Best trade % = OMG, 11/29/2006, 10.27%
Worst trade $ = NTY, 9/21/2006, -$11.47
Worst trade % = NTY, 9/21/2006, -3.82%
(OSK prior to current method, -$13.80, -4.60%)


For now,
Masterjaz out

Trades, trades and more trades...

What a day for the market, up huge, down huge, and back again. Too bad I don't day trade, but good thing I was running tight targets. Took partial profits in CAKE and NATI in the AM and closed the CAKE trade in the pm as it tanked right before the windows and those horrible FOMC minutes.

Details follow:
Sold 4.58993 shares of NATI @ $27.713
Sold 5.03641 shares of CAKE @ $25.238
Sold 5.05237 shares of CAKE @ $24.743 (had to trade unequal lots due to external factors)

CAKE: net +$2.12 or +0.85%

Watch list to follow...

For now,
Masterjaz out

Last two trades of 2006...

In typical tardy fashion, here are my last two trades of 2006, both initiated on the 29th. Following my watchlist, the action and charts of both NATI and CAKE looked great, so I bought into both. My notes are below.

NATI:

CAKE:

Once these postions are closed I'll be able to provide my statistics for December and for 2006. Things look great so far and I've really enjoyed trading and posting all my trades and thoughts to the blog. I hope someone has enjoyed reading or getting ideas.

For now,
Masterjaz out