Pre-open 09-29-2006...

Ah, the end of the month, the end of the quarter, let's see what the market makers have in store today. I am still fully invested in PEG, PRGS, and NX with limited success. A nice mark-up today will hopefully trigger PRGS Target1 and maybe one of the others. The month has been tough for trading, especially since I only had the second half, being out of the country for the first. But, the drawdown has been minimal, barring any unexpected thrashings today, so I am comfortable. I am probably trading too much and need to reflect on what works and what does not, but I'll save that for another weekend.

I do have a watch list even though I am fully invested. Have a look.

VCI, AMD, PMCS, MRCY, CPS, MCRL (lotta tech).

For now,
Masterjaz out

NX...

Another day and another trade, this time a small position in NX after a nice move this morning. It feels like overtrading all over again, but the opportunities keep presenting themselves and I keep biting. PEG is utterly disappointing so far, but I'm still riding it. PRGS is near, but not over my initial target and I may be tempted to take some profits come tomorrow and the end of the month/quarter.

NX:

I was sold on this trade by the sector movement, positive move early. Most important was the test of yesterday's highs and close with successful rebound on positive volume. I am thinking it is not wise to trade doji that are not at the very bottom of a decline (i.e. PEG), but this stock may change my thinking. Needless to say, the market action, especially the Dow30 is unbelievable.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 09-28-2006...

Still in PEG and PRGS with okay results. Given the "strength" of the market, the results are slightly disappointing, but they are up and I am okay with it. A quick watch list just to keep up to date and keep the process going.

Watch List: NX, ELK, REGN, RYN, SFD, MYL

Market looking slightly up to flat based on the futures. It will likely be a choppy day leading to Dow30 all time high.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 09-27-2006...

With two positions open, I am not looking for too much action, but a few charts caught my eye. From the 110 charts downloaded I found 7 that looked nice. CRR and CELL just stick around waiting to pop, maybe tomorrow will be the day for either.

Watch List: CELL, PAS, ABT, CRR, TTI, IDTI, and LTR.

Good luck and for now,
Masterjaz out

Double Dip...PEG...PRGS

Likely in a mad rush to be 'in' the market, I took two positions today on good looking stocks. It was bound to happen given my huge watch list yesterday, but I am pleased with the results so far. My notes follow.

PEG:

PRGS:

I'll follow these stocks along with a soon to be posted watch list for the rest of the week. I have a slight feeling the push to all-time highs (DIA) is a quarter-ending artifact and a pullback will ensue, but in the meantime, I want to take advantage of the situation.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 09-26-2006...

I was a little upset with myself yesterday as I missed a nice trade in LNT. I saw the markets in the red early in the morning and moved on. It turns out LNT saw nice sector momentum and with the markets turning over ~11am, the stock took off, leaving me wishing. Oh well, I cannot go back in time and the last action I should take is forcing a trade tomorrow.

As for tomorrow, there are plenty of choices. I received 217 charts after the close and 14 looked promising. In reality, just about every basic material and oil stock showed nice doji or hammer morning stars. I only picked a couple that had support near by or unfilled gaps.

Watch List: CELL, PEG, NOVN, PRGS, ARM, PPP, STR, CMS, CSX, WFT, NFX, PXD, CHK, and SNDK. I'll be watching these, along with the market to see if any trades should be entered. I have a sneaking feeling that most of today's action was end of month/quarter window dressing coupled with FED speak. But follow through tomorrow may be just what I need to post a positive September.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Next Week, 09-25-2006...

I am a little ahead of schedule and will take the opportunity to post my watch list now, maybe giving more time to look over the candidates. I am also going to try something new. As I've stressed in many other posts, it is important to be trading with the market as ~75% of stocks follow the overall markets. Therefore, I am going to post my thoughts on the SPY daily and weekly charts when possible. I hope it will provide me with a test of my methodology, as I evaluate the SPY the same way I do individual stocks, and may also provide guidance on how to trade candidates during the week. I don't fully believe the same criteria are valid on indices as individual stocks, but the same underlying market psychology may hold true. Time will tell, so enjoy.

Watch List: POM, LNT, CNW, JCI, STJ. There are more 'morning star' patterns in the watch list today. I don't usually trade stars much, but they may be profitable. I'll hold tight stop losses if I do trade them. POM is a nice engulfing while LNT is a doji/morning star that may reverse...

SPY commentary:

The markets do not look great right now in terms of upside potential. In the daily chart, both CCI and slow stochastics are pointing lower, while double bearish engulfings suggest a reversal. There may be some support at 131, the early September high and low on Friday, but I see a pullback to the low 129's as probable. After that 126 is likely. So the short term forcast is weak.

On the weekly chart, things are less obvious. Slow stochastics have rolled over but the CCI is still rising, albeit as overbought conditions. The bull engulf last week supports the uptrend while the small doji this week reflects indecision. So long-term, it looks neutral to slightly positive. Hopefully, next week will shed some light on the market direction.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Ouch, what a week...

Not the best week I've had trading, likely my worst so far since starting this game in July, but it was bound to happen. I closed both the NTY and CCE trades for losses and went red for September. I'm not down huge, like Amareth, but still, it is possible September will be my first losing month. The worst thing I could do is overtrade to make up the difference or start changing my system. I am going to try to avoid both issues and only make necessary, high probability trades. The one thing I have done that is positive, is beginning reviewing both my winning and lossing trades in an attempt to identify what works and what does not. Nothing to report yet.

As for the info: Sold CCE, 7.18735 shrs @ 20.57 and Sold NTY, 10.46189 shrs @ 27.58.

CCE: -$2.16 or -1.44%

NTY: -$11.50 or -3.82%

I'll be posting a watch list tomorrow or Monday morning. Maybe the week will be profitable and I'll close out the month in the green. Then again, maybe not...

Masterjaz out

NTY...

I am late in posting this, but I entered a trade in NTY based on its early price action yesterday. Then the bottom fell out, but still remained above my stop loss. Maybe I'll get some relief today, and I could also use some help from CCE. I had a sneaking feeling I'm pushing trades that are not ideal, and two loses this week may reinforce that suspicion. Here are my notes:

NTY:

And a short watchlist for Friday: HYDL, RX, RYN. Personally, the RX trade looks the best...

For now (and for the weekend, thank goodness),
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 09-21-2006...

Not too much going on since my last update. Markets have been okay, but most stocks look overbought and the market internals are diverging from the new highs seen. It is a difficult market even if the indicies don't show it. The CCE trade is flat since I entered and I am slightly surprised it did not participate in the rally yesterday, maybe today as the futures are higher. I did a quick check of CCE's beta and it was 1.1, so it should roughly correlate with the market.

As for my watch list, I found 3 charts out of 73 that I liked. As I said, the market looks overbought and finding good candidates is difficult. Watch CAG, LPX, and NTY for possible trades using the usual criteria.

For now,
Masterjaz out

CCE (09-19-2006)...

Entered a 1/2 position trade in CCE after it held up nicely this morning. Stock has odd price action, but is looking good this afternoon. Also will be a little less volatile with the FOMC tomorrow, hopefully. Trade looks good.

Details:

Additionally, I finally closed the SHFL trade from last week as it was below my theshold at the afternoon trading windows. This was a trade to learn much from. It was up and down and down and up, talk about volatility. My most important considertation is how to deal with the trading windows. When I sold the first 1/2 position it was at the low of the day. In an ideal setting, where I am not limited by trading windows, I would have taken profits at or near my Target 1. So, I am not overly upset about getting out late.
Then there are the trailing stops/targets. As I cannot pay attention to these all day, I would likely introduce watch windows, maybe on the hour where I would evaluate the price in light of the targets and take the appropriate action. It may cause me to leave stocks early, but may also get me out before something bad occurs.
In the end, many lessons learned and it is worth repeating, I am working on a methodology here, not making huge $ on each trade. That will come later...

Oh yeah, the SHFL data: Sold 5.89623 shrs @ $26.25

SHFL: +$6.89 or +2.30% net

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 09-19-2006...

Updates sure are taking a long time this month, likely because I am not trading much and working too hard. Nonetheless, I think it may be a good time to be fully invested before the FOMC meeting, if you feel like gambling. If so, I figured a watch list is in order. By the way, I am still have a half position in SHFL, it is range bound and not breaking my 1% upside/downside thresholds during a trading window. I am getting worried that I've been in the stock too long.

Watch List: CRR, PTEN, BSX, CCE, SWY, and SUN. Some dangerous names in the list including two energy stocks and BSX, but who knows what oil will do. It is a guess each and every day.

Good luck trading and I'll post my trades as I make them.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Way behind...

Sorry to all my reader(s), if any, but I've been way behind in posting my watch lists and any commentary, along with any trading activity. But, I'll get you up to date right now.

Sold 1/2 my SHFL position this morning, although it occurred near the lows of the day. It is easy to forget that I am working on a system here, not trying to make the maximum on every trade. My current account balance makes it impossible for me to trade at any time and I am completely restricted to the trading windows provided by FolioFN. On the flip side, there are many instances where my trade goes through near the high of the day. In the end, it is likely a wash.

Details: Sold 5.89622 shrs @ $25.80 (almost 4% off the intraday high!).

As for stocks I'm watching. My tcl/tk script returned ~70 charts today (13th) and I like the following:

ATW, ESST, CRR, EGN, HYDL, OGE, STR, TCB, EOG, PEG, TXU

At least half of the stocks are energy plays as the entire sector is showing a nice bottom doji or engulfing. We'll see tomorrow. I'll also be watching the SHFL trade using my 1% trailing stop and targets.

Until tomorrow,
Masterjaz out

SHFL...

Sure enough, my first day available to trade, I found a candidate and took a position. I actually had interest in three companies: KOMG, SHFL, and PETS, but decided on SHFL--a completely lucky guess. It appreciated the most over the day. Check out my notes and see if you agree. Good day for th markets as well. Up days are always so much more pleasureable. I am slightly concerned about options expiration on Friday, but maybe I'll be out of SHFL by then? There are also the inflation data...

My notes:

For now,
Masterjaz out

I'm Back and Ready to Play...

After a nice vacation/business trip, I am back to work and ready to re-enter the market, when the time is right. I did not think I'd be ready to trade this soon after being back, but I was able to download last Friday's end of day info and Monday's resulting in 210 charts. Scanning the charts I found 7 that I liked.

Watch List: JDSU, HUBG, KOMG, SHFL, CHRW, PETS, XLNX

PETS is a long-term holding of mine, so it is likely that I will not take that choice, although there have been a couple of instances where doubling down would have made huge profits. We'll see. In the meantime, I also must get back to work and cover 2 weeks of lost time, yippee.

For now,
Masterjaz out