PNRA...

Decided to play the PNRA setup this morning. I'm very late at posting this trade, but, again, I want to show you my method, not have you copy my every trade. I am slightly concerned about this trade. I jumped in before a good slow stochastics cross-over and the overall market is only ho-hum. But, I knew this would only be a half-position trade, so decided to go out on a limb.

Here are my notes:

In other news, I've been considering how to deal with targets. I set targets as a means to be objective and remove feer and greed from my trading decisions. On the flipside, targets are restrictive and don't allow winning stocks to run. So, I've started thinking about implementing trailing stops for trades that pass my first target on their way to the second and beyond. I don't know if the trailing stop will be based on percentages, support/resistence, or buy/sell levels, but I think they will provide some more upside to my trades. The ZMH and CNCT trades really got me thinking about this topic. I'll post more once I decide on a method.

For now my trades are flat on the session, and I'm back to work,

Masterjaz out

Weekend Update...

I am going to write this latest blog entry at multiple times, posting each time I am finished. So the 'weekend update' will not be complete until Sunday, but updates will be available throughout the weekend. For now, the market is looking great. I was slightly pessimistic this morning, but I'll take the upside surprise. I took partial profits in PWR as Target 1 was reached ($15.75). I contemplated closing the position, but maybe this momentum will carry over on Monday.

Trade details: Sold 8.96923 shrs @ $15.91. I'll post total net profits after I close the position.

As for possible trades on Monday, I got 123 charts and like 5. Watch PNRA, ISRG, WON, SANM, and HET. A couple of these, notably WON, are stocks in huge downtrends, but a quick pop is always possible as some go bottom-fishing.

One topic I've glossed over so far; I do not have the ability nor the desire to post my trades in real-time. My goal is to record my methodology and how I pick trades rather than my absolute trades so that anybody reading does not get money-making trades in their lap, rather they can look at some charts and make money with their own ideas. Also, given I work ~50 hours a week during the most important market periods, I don't have time to be on my computer recording every trade in real-time. Just wanted to make sure we are all on the same page (and I hope you are making money too!!).

More to come,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-28-06...

Wow, nothing in the charts this morning. Only 37 returned after the close and not a single one fulfilled my criteria. I guess I'll have to wait and see how the PWR trade goes. With the GDP number being released, it may be a choppy, if not down, market. Ah, but then comes the weekend.

For now,
Masterjaz out

PWR...

Looking at a possible trade in PWR, but doing so from inside my car outside the local coffee shop. Wireless internet mooch! Have a look for yourself; if I pull the trigger, I'll post my notes once I'm at my comfortable desk in a few hours.

Okay, now that I'm at my desk and was unable to post from the coffee shop-dang Blogger.com, I'll finish the details of this trade and provide my notes.

Notes:

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-27-06...

What a day yesterday, extremes on both ends. My quick trades in ZMH and AFFX paid off, but CHH got killed and was a signficantly larger position than the other trades. That's the market and why I'm in this game. It's excitement, intrigue, and sheer madness. The AFFX trade is especially interesting as it was a guess over APCC. Both stocks were looking strong as 11am was approaching. Basically a 50:50 toss-up. I cannot find much difference between the two: APCC was slightly higher than its sector whereas AFFX was equal to its sector. Both had similar CCI uptrends and slow stochastic cross-overs. In the end, it was just a lucky guess--yes guess--that put me in AFFX rather than APPC. Sometimes it is better to be lucky...

Enough about yesterday, today is a new day with cash to burn. My tcl/tk script returned 110 charts but I only found 5 candidates: MDC, PWR, DE, PMCS, THC. Some interesting names in the group and most are highly liquid but do not usually show dramatic moves. I'll wait and see how things look around 11am and trade accordingly.

Some say an investor should never look back, but I enjoy it. Not because I am egotistical nor rear-sighted, but because it is interesting to play "what if" and more importantly, "shoot, I should've and made more money". It is good to look back and see what worked and what did not. So, with that in mind, I took a look at CNCT yesterday, and noticed that I had cut my profits well too soon, BUT, in doing so I saved myself from a -3% move yesterday. I sold at ~$8.45, but the stock peaked a few days later at ~$9.50. I missed out on ~10%. But looking at the chart and the small body, near doji, formed on Friday, I am sure I would've exited then, likely at a lower price. In the end, I think I made the right move and am happy to take +5% any day. My motto continues to be: I am not afraid to take profits (i.e. make money) and cut losses short. In conclusion, it is fun, insightful, and educational to look back at missed opportunities, but nothing can prepare for the present, when emotions are at their highest and a profit hangs in the balance.

As always, I'll update the blog if I make a move, otherwise, it's the weekend soon and I am ready...

For now,
Masterjaz out

Profit Taking...

Both ZMH and AFFX reached my first targets early this morning, so I am going to be responsible rather than greedy and take profits. I closed the AFFX after reconsidering. I was only going to sell half, but based on the market and sector performace coupled with the 1/2-sized position from the beginning, I though it better just to close. Also, nearly forgot that ZMH reports after the close today, so I will likely close the position this afternoon. I don't want to hold a trade through earnings, just look at CHH!!!

AM trade details: ZMH, sold 2.43371 shrs @ $58.78. AFFX, sold 7.04887 shrs @ $22.43. I'll calculate net profit and percents after the full positions are closed.

AFFX: +$8.10 or +5.40%

PM trade details: ZMH, sold 2.43371 shrs @ $59.24.

ZMH: +$19.02 or +7.09% (My best trade to date!)

OUCH on CHH, but that's life. On the bright side, the dividend is safe and now has a higher yield, sic.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-26-06...Late...

Really late this morning, but I hope to get this posted before the market opens. Luckily, I'm completely vested and am not overly concerned with the early market action. The two open trades, ZMH and AFFX, performed admirably yesterday, especially ZHM's late after pop. I will be taking profits in half that position as the $57 target has been reached. The next questions is: will it fill the gap up?

As for future trades, my tcl/tk script returned 80 charts and I only really liked BMHC, the rest were so so. Given the modest two-day rally, it is not surprising that fewer stocks meet my oversold conditions based on CCI and Slow Stochastic indicators. For now, I will wait.

CHH, a stock in my long-term IRA, is getting killed in the pre-market after missing their numbers yesterday afternoon. I'm not selling, but I am not buying either. The stock has a history of tanking, then regaining the loses within a month or two. My first position in CHH came from a similar blow-up in Feb. On the other hand BER's numbers were great.

I'll keep abreast of my trades and post any buying or selling.

For now,
Masterjaz out

AFFX...

Tricky, tricky day today. Both AFFX and APCC satisfied all my guidelines for a quick swing trade, but I went with AFFX based on total upside:downside risk/reward. I may regret this decision as AFFX appears to be the more volatile of the two, but maybe it will be to the upside! Both stocks had up mornings, up sectors, and good CCI + Slow Stochastic support. Too bad I did not have more cash at my disposal. Even now, AFFX only is a half position due to a lack of funds.

My notes:

I'll track this stock, along with my ZMH trade (which I did not even look at, in retrospect-dumb).

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-25-06...

Good day yesterday, markets up, long-term portfolio up, and new ZHM trade up, although I did get on-board a little late. The question is will the markets continue tomorrow?

As for trade candidates, the script returned 119 charts of which I like 9. Most charts showed bullish engulfings, but many are already well above my CCI and slow stochastic thresholds. Check out the following and see if there are any good candidates.

Watch List: HW, AFFX, MSM, PTEN, APCC, CPB, MOLX, NSM, TYC

There are a couple good names, some speculative plays, and even a few defensive stocks in the mix. I have a half position available if the market is cooperating tomorrow.

'Til then,
Masterjaz out

ZMH...

I mentioned ZMH in my pre-open report and liked the trade. The market is cooperating and the stock managed to come down right before my 11am trade windows--like it is meant to be. See my notes below for the trade details. NOTE: ZMH is set to report after the market closes on Wednesday, the 26th, so it is unlikely that I will hold through the 2pm window. Holding through earnings is a pure gamble and I am not willing to risk my capital. I'd go to Vegas if I wanted to gamble. Other than that, I hope to 57 if not 59 soon!!!

My notes:

The PETS earnings report was decent and the shorts are running. I am not sure the gain will hold into the close. We'll see...

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-24-06...

Wild volatility last week, but it did provide the opportunity to make some money on CNCT, but lose some on RHI. But, it's a new week and new opporatunities may present themselves and I'll be ready.

Only 78 charts returned on Friday, mostly stocks that are up and the ship has sailed. A couple stocks to watch early on. ZMH, TER, AGL, and YHOO show some promise. Nothing great, but in a recovering market, these may be ready to rise to the occasion.

I don't have a lot of commentary to offer. I am going to follow my strategy this coming week and try to find some winners. In the end, I think the market must be getting close to a bottom, although many historical statistics suggest there is still room to the downside. It is a big week for earnings which may tilt the scale either direction. In my long-term portfolio PETS, BER, CHH, SMG, ECL, and PCU will be reporting. It may be a volitile week for that portfolio. Hopefully, some short-term trades will provide some support.

For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-21-2006 Update...

It's been a crazy couple of days, but yesterday I closed CNCT with a respectable profit and hope to replicate that trade in the coming weeks. A weak market may also be reflective in that only 18 charts were returned by my candlestick script. Yet, I still have a couple stocks to watch tomorrow. Depending on the market, it may be worth a quick trade.

Watch List: WWY, TRB.

Since there are only two stocks, I think I'll provide some background as to why I selected them. WWY, formed a bullish engulfing after forming a decent base at 43.25-43.50. The CCI uptick near -100 and slow stochastic crossover (black rising above red line) yesterday, support the possible swing trade. I would set a target of 44.75 (middle of long base formed in June) and a stop loss of 43.00. Upside:downside ratio of 2.5:1 nominally fits desired 3:1. Only allowing for 1% decline may be a little too tight, but given the market, it may be wise.

TRB, formed a weak morning star after a sizable decline from July 12. I am not the biggest fan of morning stars, but sometimes they work. Additionally, the fact that candlestick lengths are shortening and there is major support at 29.75 supports the trade. I would make a trade if the stock and sector open higher. A target of 31.05 (weak resistance given a couple gaps and closes in the area) and a stop loss of ~29.00 (no real chart support, chose 3% decline instead) would complete the trade. Upside:downside is 2:1, not the best. I also am not fond of the support and resistance for the stock. Nonetheless, it may be profitable.

That's all for now. I'll see what the market offers and make the necessary trades. Good luck!

For now,
Masterjaz out

A Jeckel and Hyde Day...

Coming into the 2pm trade window, today is looking rather mixed. On one hand, CNCT is looking great. I took partial profits at 11am @ $8.46 a share (net $7.00 or 2.6%, relative to the total position) and closed the trade at 2pm ($8.45 a share; net $6.83, 2.5%). Grand total on the trade is:

CNCT: +$13.83 or +5.15%

The stock was strong relative to the market and I did not want to give up my gains. I love profits. On the other hand, RHI is looking very weak. The sector is underperforming huge today thanks to a different Cos. earnings (LRW) but I still don't like the price action. And it keeps getting worse as I'm writing. I will close this position at 2pm ($34.29 a share) for a minor loss. There's always the possibility of a rally near the trading windows. In the end, the CNCT blew away the RHI and I'm still up on the trades. Just the way I like it.

RHI: -$3.06 or -2.06%

Nonetheless, had I held RHI would've killed me. It closed at $33.12, OUCH. Likewise, CNCT is looking a little weak although its performance today vs. the market is respectable. You know my philosophy: Never hurts to take profits. Similarly: it never hurts to cut loses. I know I bailed on RHI a little early, but I am glad I did. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. It's my opinion that there will always be another trade, another opportunity and I must have cash for that time rather than be stuck in a flat-lining stock.

And, given that I am all in cash right now--I'll be posting a watch list tomorrow. I'll see what the tcl/tk script returns and give my opinions. By the way, LSTR bombed today in spite of decent earnings. Transports are getting killed, sorry if you got in based on my opinion (PETS was up!).

Long post, long day, for now,
Masterjaz out

I Love the Bulls...

Thank you Uncle Ben!! I mentioned yesterday it could be a profitable day and boy was it, fantastic. If you saw my PETS or LSTR call yesterday, cha-ching, 5.7% or 1.5% gains, respectively. Other stocks did better, some worse, but I'll take it. RHI and CNCT performed similarly, 1.18% and 3.79%. Tempting to take profits tomorrow given the market, we'll see. I try to keep to my targets, but I am not afraid of taking partial profits, I'm not scared of money. Are you?

In all honesty, I don't expect this rally to last. I expect to see some gains through the end of week, possibly through the end of next depending on the earnings forth coming. After earnings, the market will be back looking at inflation data and its a 50:50 gamble. I'll take the upside now and possibly pull out after earnings. Next week could be interesting as a bulk of earnings come out. Tomorrow is SHW and LSTR for me...

As for future trades, the tcl/tk script returned a whopping 260 charts, mostly bullish engulfs, which is expected given today's market action. Again, given I'm fully invested and horribly busy, I'm not going to go through them this morning. Sorry...

'Til tomorrow,
Masterjaz out

Morning Update...

Wild day yesterday but I am pleasently surprised. RHI trade is working, yet CNCT was down slightly. That is the way it goes. tcl/tk script returned 95 charts overnight, but I am not going to go through them. There a couple of good looking setups, but given I'm in two positions and nearly out of cash, I'll hold off. I will mention two: LSTR and PETS. I own both as long term, hold 'em 'til I'm dead type but I have been taken to the woodshed with both. Both returned nice bullish engulfings with stochastic and cci support. Make a trade if the market looks good tomorrow. With the CPI and Uncle Ben's testimony, it could be a wild, possibly profitable, day.

I'll keep everyone informed if RHI or CNCT make a move, otherwise, I'm sitting back and relaxing on hump day.

For now,
Masterjaz out

RHI

In a slightly rushed order, I bought RHI after it weakly completed a morning star after a huge sell-off. It may not be the best trade, but it did met my criteria (at least at the time of decision, ~5 min before 11 am window closed for trading). Markets were marginally up, sector as well. Upside:downside ratio looks good (see notes), and the candlestick fit my desired pattern. The only problem I really had is setting the stop loss as the stock is at long-term lows and find support from the 3mo chart is impossible. I used the long term chart coupled with a volatility stop loss to come to ~34. 34.50 hold support, but it may be too tight.

The chart:
For now,
Masterjaz out

Pre-open 07-18-2006...

Wow, my tcl script returned 215 charts yesterday (Monday) after the market close. Given the neutral performace, I don't know if I have a leading indicator here or a pre-mature bear. Nonetheless, I still filtered through and found 28 charts that fulfill my criteria. By the way, the CNCT trade was flat again today, still basing near 8. If the market goes, this stock may explode. Time will tell.

As for the charts: FAF, URBN, ACS, STAR, PJC, SONC, WPP, AFFX, BOH, COCO, IRF, MRBK, ORLY, AMP, APOL, AZO, GE, HIG, LEN, MTG, SSP, WWY, HIBB, BWA, MCDTA, LU, RHI, and VMC.

Take note, there are some dangerous stocks in the group including some housing, some low priced tech, and telecom. Please be careful, I know I will be. Of course I won't be trading unless CNCT hits my target or stop loss.

Quick and easy today (well, excluding all the links to the charts...), maybe tomorrow will be positive, maybe not, either way, I'll be watching the market to see what CNCT does along with the stocks mentioned today.

For now,
Masterjaz out

CNCT (in retrospect)...

Below is my current trade in CNCT. I use Windows Journal to keep track of my trades and will be posting the pages on the blog (if possible). I focus on the short-term daily, 3mo chart and indicators with support from intraday (delayed quotes from Yahoo!), and long-term weekly, 3yr chart. I record my stop loss, targets, and appropriate signals. You'll see...

Here is the page:


As you can see, the window trades are problematic at times, but I just accept the transaction price in stride. In the end, I assume I get some good prices at good times and some poor prices at bad times. It is likely a wash. For the CNCT trade, it did cost me 1% due to the spike in stock price right when the window trade commensed.

That's my current trade, I'll update as needed.

For now,
Masterjaz out

More about my method...

In the previous post, I mentioned the technical and candlestick criteria used to find quick 1-5 day trades, sometimes longer, but I did not mention how I find the stocks.

I have written a tcl/tk script that downloads end of the day quotes from Yahoo, looks for the appropriate candlesticks, then downloads the stock's chart from stockcharts.com. I then go through the charts to see which stocks catch my attention. I usually end up with 0 to 20 stocks per day. The end of the day prices, along with high, low, open, volume, are saved in a text file on my computer. Currently, I use the S&P1500 super composite, as all the companies included in the index are available for window trading through FolioFN.

In the future I would like to add stochastic calculations to my script, but the coding is many times more difficult than the candlesticks, mainly due to the number of prices that need to be retreived and put into calculations.

It is that easy.

Watch List (07-17-2006):

MRCY, TDY, UTEK, MLNM, RL, CD, FISV, MMC, THC, RNT, CYMI, ITRI, KNSY, LZB, FIC, WFR, PMCS, Q, JKHY, MHP

If I had the time, I would like to give targets and stop losses for all the stocks on my watch list, but it is probable that many will not meet my criteria at ~10:45 am the next day. Therefore, I wait to first pick out stocks that are up, along with the sector, and hopfully the market, and then determine the short term targets.

Also, I am currently in a short term trade in CNCT, so unless I am stopped out or hit my target, I won't trade from my watch list. I am working on building capital to trade multiple stocks, but for right now it is one at a time.

That's all for now, thanks for reading,

Masterjaz out

And it begins...

Hello all,

This is my first blog, first time putting my stock market trades out there, first time attempting to help others; it's my first time period. The goal of this blog is purely selfish. I want to publically track my stock market trades and improve my objectivity by having my trades visible to the world. I am fairly new at this game, both blogging and trading, but I think both will improve with time. Maybe you'll stick around...

As for my methodology. I have a Roth IRA account with FolioFn. FolioFn (www.foliofn.com) is a unique brokerage in which they provide stocks that are tradable in 'windows' in which they first match my order with others in the brokerage and then go to the market if there is not a match. As a result, they lower commissions and provide tighter spreads, in theory. The best part, I get 200 trades a month for $19.95. Also, I get to trade partial shares. For anyone like me with low balances, this the ideal brokerage. The downside I've found is the market order prices can deviate from what I expect to get. No big deal and the money I save in commissions makes the slippage acceptable.
Okay, setting up trades. I use charts to find trades. I buy stocks that met three primary criteria, 1) a doji, bullish engulfing, or morning star candlesticks (these are most predictive of a reversal, in my opinion), 2) slow stochastic with 5,5 lookback that crosses below 25, 3) a CCI that is below -100 and ticking upward. In addition to these criteria, I prefer the stock's industry and the overall market to be higher on the session. I also like daily volumes >300k. Finally, I place stop loss and target prices based on support and resistance zones define by price-by-volume bars. I desire a 3:1 upside:downside ratio based on the identified zones.

I know it seems like a lot, but it is easy to make a chart with all the necessary information. I'll be posting the charts with my annotations along with stop losses and targets as I go.

I think I've bored you already, but if you stick around, you may make some money with me.

Thanks for reading,

Masterjaz out